My biggest fear for this week’s playoff game isn’t the run defense. It isn’t the pass defense, Trevor Lawrence or the Jags stout run defense. It’s Joe Brady’s play calling, especially in short yardage situation and especially in the red zone.
Let’s look back to the Bills three losses to NFL playoff teams, the Patriots, Texans and Eagles for examples of my concern.
Patriots loss week 5: Bills were 4-0 and while there were concerns about the offense we were facing the Patriots at home in a game where the Pat’s were looking to get back in the race, having lost 2 of their last four games. In a 3-3 game, the Bills got the ball to start the 3rd quarter and drove to the NE 11 yard line. On second and four the Bills predictably ran Cook up the middle for a gain of one. On third and three, in possible four down territory, Brady called for one of his now infamous wide receiver screens to Shakir which, in hindsight was predictably a three yard loss. You have third and three at the 11. The NE defense is in press coverage given the proximity to the goal line and he calls a play that STARTS four yards BEHIND the line of scrimmage and seven yards from the line to gain the first down. Bills FG makes it a 6-3 game instead of a 10-3 game with a TD. We lose by three points.
Later in the same game we have the ball, down three at the NE 27 with 2:46 left in the game. A TD here wins the game. On first down Brady AGAIN calls for the WR screen to Shakir. The play is blown up and the pass falls incomplete (luckily for the Bills because had Shakir caught the ball he would have lost 3-4 yards). Next play is a deep throw to Coleman which falls incomplete and after another incompletion the Bills settle for a FG to tie the game. Two minutes later the Patriots kick game winning FG.
In both of these situations Brady called for a WR screen. Both failed and both cost Bills the game.
Houston Texans game Week 11: Yes a missed Extra point cost us big time. Yes the Texans defensive line sacked Josh numerous times and forced him into bad throws. That said, however, the Bills had two huge opportunities to win this game in the second half.
The first such situation came with about ten minutes left in the game. The Bills had moved the ball 40 yards in seven plays. Down 23-16, they had a third down and two at the Texans 24. Brady calls for a Cook run up the middle out of the shotgun (this requires the ball to be handed to cook five yards from the line of scrimmage). The play gains one yard. On fourth and one, instead of a Josh Tush-push, Brady AGAIN puts Josh in the shotgun and again calls for a Cook run which is blown up for a two yard loss. Again, in a situation where you need one yard Brady called a play that required Cook to get the ball five yards deep and six yards from the line to gain instead of using Allen on a tush push which had been successful every time they’d used it this year.
The second situation came near the end of the game. Down 23-19 and needing a TD the Bills faced a fourth and 27 at their own 30 yard line. Brady showed that he does have some ability to draw up a great play when he called for the hook and lateral to Palmer/Shakir for a 44 yard gain. Later on the same drive the Bills, with one time-out left, were faced with a third down and one at the Texans 17. Instead of getting the first down on a tush push and calling the time out which would have left them with four shots to the end zone, the Bills threw the ball which was incomplete. Now faced with a fourth down, on a play that HAD to get one yard or game was over, Brady again put Josh in the shotgun and empty backfield. Why? There was still a time out. Going empty backfield all but eliminated a run play. The fact that Dawkins false started didn’t help things but the real issue was why not just get the first down and live for four more plays? We all saw the resulting blitz, pressure and game ending interception. Way too cute here by Brady.
Eagles Game week 17: Down 13-0 with six minutes left in the third quarter the Bills drove to the Eagles two yard line. On third and goal from the two Brady calls a Cook run up the middle which loses a yard. We all saw the replays which showed the Eagles defensive players actually calling out the exact play that the Bills were going to run. The fact that the eagles were so confident of what the Bills planned to do on third down tells us just how predictable Brady has become in these situations. Third and two. Josh had gained at least two yards on 11 straight Tush pushes this year. You need a TD there. Tush push him twice for fuck’s sake. Instead, predictably Brady calls a play that’s blown up and loses a yard. Now faced with three yards to go the tush push is now out of the question (as is a run) and on fourth down Josh scrambles and is tackled 1/2 yard short of the goal line. That one yard loss on the Cook play determined everything. Even a one yard gain would have left us 4th and one which changes the whole gameplan both offensively and defensively. Instead we get zero points in a game we lose by one.
This short yardage offense and the inability to get those tough yards also comes into play on the two point conversion attempts. But for the Jets conversion, the Bills had been one for seven on these plays. Brady needs to figure out a play that can get two yards when it’s needed. The WR screen is not the call nor is Cook up the middle. Use your best weapon in these situations: Josh Allen.
PREDICTION: Bills 27-21 win with Josh throwing for 300+ and three TDs. Go Bills