Last week’s rant talked about my biggest fear v Jacksonville being play calling on short yardage situations. Bills and Brady were almost perfect in short yardage situations against the Jag’s, due almost entirely to Brady’s realization that Cook up the middle on 3rd and 4th downs wasn’t working. Dare I say that Brady is becoming less stubborn and more intelligent in his lay calling as the season progresses? Nah.
My concern this week also revolves around play calling and Brady’s arrogance/stubbornness. As I’ve documented this entire season, Brady has specific tendencies that good defenses capitalize on to force the Bills offense to under produce. The game against the Jag’s was a perfect example of this.
In last week’s Jags game the Bills ran the ball 10 times on first down. In those ten rushing attempts the Bills gained a total of 18 yards. On only one occasion did the Bills gain more that three yards. The result of which was the Bills in a second and long situation. Two things happen when the Bills are in second and long: 1) James Cook, the Bills All-Pro RB comes off the field; and 2) Defenses know the Bills are almost always throwing the ball. This allows defenses, especially those with a great pass rush like Denver (or Eagles, Texans and Jag’s for further examples) to rush the passer without worrying about run defense. It also allows a defense’s linebackers to drop into coverage much quicker and thus clog up passing lanes.
After failing to score a TD in the first quarter in spite of getting the ball at the Jacksonville 33 after a Lawrence Interception (on a drive that went 3 yard run, 1 yard pass, Allen run for two, five yard penalty and FG), the Bills opened up their offense on their third drive of the game and went 92 yards for a TD. Look at the difference in play calling that drive: 4 yard pass, 15 yard pass, 6 yard pass, 11 yard run (on second and four), 12 yard pass, no gain run (on first down again), 36 yard pass. Now with the offense humming by throwing the ball on first down, what did Brady do? He ran Cook for 6 yards. This was successful because he’d passed the ball which set up the run game. Two lays later we scored.
The next offensive series was similar. pass, pass, run and a first down; pass, run and a second first down; At the two minute warning and with a first down at the Bills own 49 yard line “old predictable” went back to the well and Cook gained two on first down. The following play was a perfectly thrown ball to Cooks for a 27 yard gain which, for some unknown reason, was ruled an incompletion in spite of there being no visual evidence of a drop, much less “conclusive” video evidence. With a fourth and four from the Jag’s 45 McDermott decided to try and draw the Jag’s offsides which almost never works. Instead of going for it the Bills punted.
Going into the fourth quarter the Bills were up 13-10. The offense was stagnant. Continued runs on first down left the Bills and Josh in second and long situations. After the Jag’s opened up the fourth with a TD the Bills were now down 17-13. On the next series the Bills finally opened up their offense. 6 yard run, 7 yard pass, 24 yard pass. With a 2nd and 10 at the Jag’s 28 Josh completes a 4 yard pass, runs for five on the next play and runs for 4 more on the next to give the Bills the ball a first down at the Jag’s 15. Instead of running the ball up the middle on first down like he had numerous times previously, Brady calls a pass play which results in a TD to Kincaid. Amazing???
After the Jag’s scored to again take the lead 24-20, the Bills got the ball back with 4:03 left on the clock. Nine plays later (pass, run, run-1st down; pass, pass, pass and the Bills have a fourth and one at the Jag’s 11 yard line. Remember this situation in the Houston and eagles games where Brady called for a Cook run up the middle for no gain? Remember me complaining that nobody had stopped Josh on a Tush-push all year? Well maybe, just maybe Brady has been reading my rants because he actually called for an Allen Tush-push which gained 9 1/2 yards. Bills scored on next play and the Bills go onto win.
The point of this rant is the following:
1. If you put Josh into second and long against a Broncos defense which rushes the passer as well if not better than any team in the NFL we will be in trouble;
2. The Bills have proven time and time again that they are a much better offensive team when they throw the ball on first down. Giving the offense second and short yardage situations prevents a defense from being able to accurately predict what the Bills offense will do and allows for opportunities to take shots down the field.
3. Let Josh be Josh. He’s the best QB in football. He makes throws and creates opportunities with his legs that no other QB in the league does. Let him be the offense. Throw to set up the run. Keep Cook in the game so the defense doesn’t know it’s a pass play.
If the Bills do what they did this past week on short yardage situations and start to throw the ball to set up the run I’m confident the Bills win by 10+ points Saturday. I’m not afraid of Bo Nix and the Bronco’s offense. So long as we keep the Broncos defense honest with a mix of run and pass, especially in early downs the Bills should win.
Prediction: Bills 27-16. Go Bills