Again, it’s tough to find a place to start after yesterday’s debacle turned win. Just like in game one this year against the Ravens, the Bills found a way to win in spite of questionable play-calling, coaching decisions and a putrid defense. There are many issues with this team. One of them is NOT Josh Allen. Like in the Ravens game, Josh again put the team on his back to win a game that, with eight minutes left, looked hopeless. Reading tweets from yesterday from Nate Geary, Lance Lysowski and others which had the game over with eight minutes left and the comments thereafter were hilarious. Just goes to show that with Josh Allen you are never out of the game. Don’t get me wrong here. Josh did not win this game on his own. A tremendous play by Benford for a pick six and an interception on the next play by Epenesa clearly turned the tide, but it was Josh Allen, whose play throughout the game was exemplary, that gave us the win. At 9-4 and with the Division leading Patriots up next, lets look at the pluses and minuses from yesterday’s game and how they may effect this team going forward.
PLUS:
1. Josh Allen: 22/28 for 251 yards and three touchdowns passing along with 80 yards and a TD rushing. Amazing game that the Bills needed. Almost as important was his ability to convert on 3rd and 4th downs keeping drives alive and ending up with points. His throw on fourth down to Shakir was absolutely phenomenal. The reactions from the TV announcers as to how he threaded the needle was informative as to the difficulty of making that throw. Remember the situation: Down 14-3 early in the second quarter, the Bills had been absolutely hopeless in stopping the Bengals offense in their opening two drives. After a mind-blowing Brady call for a Tight End screen to Knox on third and three at the Bengals 10 yard line (we will revisit Brady later), Josh now had a fourth and four from the 11 yard line. Nobody appeared open and Josh was forced to scramble to his right. With nothing to lose since it was fourth down anyway Josh bided a bit more time before throwing an absolute dart to Shakir for the TD. Instead of being down 14-3 with the Bengals having the ball, the Bills were only down three points after Josh found Knox for the two point conversion.
Throughout the game Josh came up big in crucial situations. After Cook fumbled on the Bengals one yard line with a chance to take the lead for the first time all game, and after the Bengals torched the Bills defense for another TD in a 12 play 80 yard drive, it looked as if the game may have been over. Some fans began leaving their seats and heading home (bad move). Bills were now down 28-18 with a little under 9 minutes left in regulation. Time to put up or shut up for Josh and the Bills offense which hadn’t punted once but only had 18 points to show for it. In four plays the Bills went 68 yards in 1 minute and 11 seconds. Two perfect throws the Shavers and Kincaid, an incompletion and then the offensive play of the game where Josh scrambled 40 yards for a TD. 28-25and Bills were back in the game.
We all saw what happened thereafter with the interceptions and the Hawes TD reception. The play that may have actually been the play of the game didn’t result in points. Up 39-35 the Bills were trying to run out the clock. They were faced with a third and 15 at their own 25 yard line. There were still 1 minute and 54 seconds left on the clock. The Bengals had used up all of their time outs but their prior touchdown drive had been accomplished in four plays with the usage of only 50 seconds on the clock. A punt here would leave the door open (one might argue wide-open given the Bills defensive failures). With the game on the line Josh stepped up into the pocket and , with nobody open, ran for a 17 yard gain which sealed the victory. The move he made on the Bengals defender which resulted in the extra yards needed was classic Josh. Game over.
2. Offensive line: Again, but for a few costly holding penalties, the offensive line showed just how good they are. Josh was sacked three times but was still given enough time to throw for 251 yards. Cook and Johnson combined for 105 yards rushing on 20 carries, a 5.25 yards per carry. With Brown out the past two games and with Dawkins missing last week, this line has come up with ways to win.
3. Christian Benford: Earlier this season Benford had gone through some heavy criticism. He had just signed a big contract and was perceived to be the Bills #1 corner for years to come. Struggles early let to concerns about whether he was THE GUY. His play the past two games should put those issues to rest. Last week he came up with a fumble recovery which he took in for a touchdown giving the Bills a 10-7 lead. He followed that up on the next series with an interception which led to another Bills TD and lead which they wouldn’t give up. Yesterday he came up with a huge interception/pick 6 at a time when the Bills defense was once again floundering. Three big plays in the past two games!!! In the past two games against two top receivers DK Metcalf and Ja’Marr Chase he has given up one catch for two yards, two interceptions, a fumble recovery, two TDs and a sack. Not too shabby.
4. Aggressiveness on 4th down: McDermott went for it on four fourth down situations yesterday and converted three of them. Analytics v gut feeling? Not sure so long as he stays agggressive.
MINUSES:
1. Offensive play calling/Joe Brady: Again, people may criticize me for criticizing Brady when his offense scored 32 points. Yes the scored a ton of points but some of the play calling getting there was head scratching. For weeks Its been my opinion that Brady is “too cute”. His arrogance and stubbornness in his use of jets sweeps and wide receiver screens has been frustration. Yesterday there were a number of play-calls that just made no sense.
a. Bills first drive. Down 7-0, the Bills moved the ball from their own 23 to the Bengals 5 yard line on 6 plays. Faced with a third and two in what appeared to be four down territory, Brady called for an Allen designed run which lost three yards and resulted in a FG rather than a TD. The Bills three prior runs had gained 2, 23 and 4 yards respectively. The past seven times the Bills had run the Tush-push Josh had gained at least 3 yards on each. Nice and easy call: Tush push and f you don’t get two yards do it again on fourth and short. Instead, the play call, like the fourth and 1 call in the Houston game where Cook lost two yards was just way too cute. Going into the shotgun on these short yardage situations makes no sense. Get the first down dummy!!!
b. As discussed above, the 3rd and three TE screen to Knox which proceeded the Shakir TD was just another example of his arrogance and stubbornness. You are once again in four down territory. You need three yards in two plays. You need positive yards and can’t lose yardage on third down. We’d run the ball four times previously on that drive for gains of 5, 6, 8 and 3 yards. Instead, Brady calls for his rarely successful screen pass to a wide receiver/Tight end. But for Josh’s heroics on fourth down the Bills would have wasted a drive and points.
c. The last call that left my jaw dropping was on the Bills last series of the game. They got the ball on their own 30 with 2:13 left in the game. The Bengals had one time out left. Cook runs for three yards and it’s now the two-minute warning. We need a first down but ewe also need to bleed the clock. Cook and Johnson had been averaging 5.25 yards per carry up to this point. For whatever reason, Brady calls for a pass and Josh is sacked for an 8 yard loss. Yes the clock stopped but we lost eight yards and Josh came perilously close to fumbling when he was hit. Why in the world would you call a pass play in that situation when the run game had been so successful? This placed all the pressure on Josh on third and 15 and luckily he scrambled for the first down.
As a whoe, Brady called a pretty good game. Good usage of pass to run ration kept the Bengals terrible defense on their heels. But for Allen bailing him out with gamesaving plays we’d be looking a a loss here. Brady needs to be less cute and more Josh.
2. Pass Defense: This pass defense as it’s presently constructed is just terrible. Time and time again yesterday the Bills cornerbacks and safeties were torched with long gains. The Bengals, but for their two turnovers, moved the ball at will. At one point they were 8/9 in third down efficiency and ended up 10/12. On their first drive alone they converted third downs of 5, 6, 10 and 1 yards. On their second possession it was a conversion on 3rd and 11 from the Bills 43 which led to their second TD. On their third drive of the game the Bills gave up 3rd down conversions of 7 and 3 yards. Up to this point in the game the Bengals were 7 for 7 on third downs and had scored touchdowns on all three drives.
In addition to the poor third down play, the Bills pass defenders, for whatever reason, continually refuse to look back at the ball on pass plays. How many times do we need to watch Taron Johnson run over a wide receiver on an underthrown ball and get flagged with pass interference instead of intercepting the underthrown ball. Time and time again this happens just as it did yesterday on Johnson in the second quarter (33 yard penalty on 2nd and 10 from Bills 43). What should have been a turnover became a key play in the Bengals TD drive. We saw the same this when Higgins beat Hairston for his TD in the second half. Back to the QB, never turns and the ball whizzes by his had for a TD. Our cornerbacks have 4 interceptions this entire year. Two of them by Benford (pick six yesterday and the overthrown ball last week) and two by Hairston. We need these guys to make more plays on the ball. In order to do so you need to see the ball which you can’t do when turned away from the QB.
3. Special teams: Once again yesterday our special teams return teams were outplayed by our opponent. But for the Davis TD return a few weeks back, our kickoff return game has been consistently leaving the Bills in poor field position. Yesterday, the Bills drive starts after kick offs were at their own 23, 30, 32, 25 and 32 yard lines. In comparison, the Bengals drive starts were at their own 33, 45, 31 and 34 yard lines. That’s an average drive start at the 28.4 for the Bills and the 35.75 for the Bengals. This discrepancy while seemingly trivial has been throughout the year and constantly puts the opponents in better field position. Prater’s kickoffs rarely are fielded inside the ten yard line and make us succeptible for longer returns.
4. James Cook/Fumbles A few years ago Cook had ball control issues. He fumbled a lot and dropped passes consistently. Last year and in the first eight games of this year he had seemed to correct those issues. But five fumbles in the past five games makes me worry. His fumbe in the Texans game was huge. His two yesterday almost cost us the game.
Overall the Bills are in good position. They’ve been much more successful lately in stopping the run and their offense has, for the last 6 quarters, been clicking on all cylinders. Next week is the game that will test their mettle. I’m just hoping that they don’t fall into the same traps and arrogance that has plagued them in all four losses as well as a few wins. No more WR screens or Jet’s sweeps. Throw the ball on first downs occasionally to set up the run. Let Josh be Josh. Bills 28 NE 20. Go Bills